by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2021 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 8.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 16, 2021.

... The Refinance Index increased 10 percent from the previous week and was 23 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 57 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest levels in around two months, prompting a small resurgence in refinance activity after six weeks of declines. Borrowers acted on the decrease in rates for most loan types, with both conventional and government refinance applications showing gains,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The spring housing market also saw a boost from lower rates, with purchase applications – driven by a jump in conventional applications – increasing over 5 percent. MBA expects the purchase market to remain strong, with the recovering job market and supportive demographics fueling housing demand in the months ahead.”

Added Kan, “The average loan size for purchase applications increased after a few weeks of declines, as fewer homes available for sale make for a competitive buying market that is accelerating home-price growth.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) decreased to 3.20 percent from 3.27 percent, with points increasing to 0.36 from 0.33 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With low rates, the index remains elevated, but below recent levels since mortgage rates have moved up from the record lows.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 57% year-over-year unadjusted.

Note: Until the 2nd half of May, the MBA index will be up sharply year-over-year since purchase activity collapsed in late March 2020 in the early weeks of the pandemic.

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).