by Calculated Risk on 12/05/2018 11:42:00 AM

CR Note: The summary paragraph is key. Demographics are worse than they appeared a few years ago.

From housing economist Tom Lawler: US Death Rate Up, Life Expectancy Down in 2017

The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) reported that there were 2,813,503 US deaths in 2017, 69,255 higher than in 2016. The “age-adjusted” death rate (per 100,000) increased to 731,9 in 2017 from 728.8 in 2016, while the estimated life expectancy at birth declined to 78.6 in 2017 from 78.7 in 2016.

Below is a table showing some historical death rates for selected age groups.

What is especially striking about this table is the sharp increase in death rates among 25-44 year old over the last five years.

US Death Rates (deaths per 100,000 population), Total and Selected Age Groups (NCHS)
Yr	Total	15-24	25-34	35-44	45-54	55-64	65-74	75-84	85+	Age Adj.
2000	854	80	101	199	426	992	2399	5667	15524	869
2005	828	81	107	195	432	899	2110	5252	14982	815
2010	800	68	103	171	407	852	1875	4790	13934	747
2011	807	68	105	172	410	849	1846	4753	13779	741
2012	810	66	105	171	405	854	1803	4675	13679	733
2013	822	65	106	172	406	860	1802	4648	13660	732
2013	824	66	108	175	405	870	1786	4564	13408	725
2015	824	66	108	175	405	870	1786	4564	13408	725
2016	844	75	129	192	406	884	1789	4475	13392	729
2017	864	74	133	195	402	886	1791	4473	13574	732

The NCHS also reported that there were 70,237 drug overdose deaths in 2017, up from 63,632 in 2016. Here is a table showing some historical drug overdose deaths for selected age groups.

Drug Overdose Deaths by Selected Age Groups
Year	15-24	25-34	35-44	45-54	55-64	65+	Total
2000	1,435	3,169	6,469	4,389	1,013	854	17,415
2005	2,918	5,340	8,506	8,968	2,761	1,203	29,813
2010	3,571	7,572	8,546	11,299	5,486	1,722	38,329
2011	3,762	8,445	9,130	11,933	6,060	1,892	41,340
2012	3,518	8,508	8,948	11,895	6,423	2,094	41,502
2013	3,664	8,947	9,320	12,045	7,551	2,344	43,982
2014	3,798	10,055	10,134	12,263	8,122	2,568	47,055
2015	4,235	11,880	11,505	12,974	8,901	2,760	52,404
2016	5,376	15,443	14,183	14,771	10,632	3,075	63,632
2017	5,455	17,400	15,949	15,996	11,747	3,529	70,237

The NCHS did note that provisional data for the first four months of 2018 suggest that drug overdose death rates declined very slightly from last year’s alarmingly high rates.

According to the NCHS, there were 47,143 suicides in the US last year, up from 44,965 in 2016.

	US Suicide Deaths			US Drug Overdose Deaths
Year	Total	Men	Women	Total	Men	Women
1999	29,199	23,458	5,741	16,849	11,258	5,591
2016	44,965	34,727	10,238	63,632	41,558	22,074
2017	47,173	36,782	10,391	70,237	46,552	23,685

The NCHS death data highlight some serious issues facing the US. They also highlight the serious issues associated with the latest medium- and long-term population projections from Census. Below is a table comparing the so-called “Census 2017” Population Projections for deaths compared to the NCHS data.

US Deaths: Census 2017 Projections Vs. Actuals
	Census 2017 Projections			NCHS	Census Avg.
	12 months ended:			Calendar Year	Vs.
	6/30/2017	6/30/2018	Average	2017	NCHS
Total	2,688,802	2,717,297	2,703,050	2,813,503	-110,454
<1	39,741	39,250	39,496	22,335	17,161
1-14	13,787	13,688	13,738	9,580	4,158
15-24	23,543	22,804	23,174	32,025	-8,852
25-34	43,981	43,340	43,661	60,215	-16,555
35-44	62,599	61,705	62,152	79,796	-17,644
45-54	151,976	145,945	148,961	170,142	-21,182
55-64	330,420	327,584	329,002	372,006	-43,004
65-74	493,422	500,663	497,043	531,610	-34,568
75-84	619,610	638,667	629,139	657,759	-28,621
85+	909,723	923,651	916,687	878,035	38,652

First, there is obvious “mistake” in the Census 2017 projections for “infant” deaths. Second, the Census 2017 death projections for 15-84 year olds for calendar year 2017 (approximated in the above table) were a whopping 170,424 below actual deaths for this broad age group. The Census 2017 death projections for subsequent years have the same “issues,” overstating infant, child, and 85+ deaths and significantly understating likely deaths for all other age groups. These “issues” make the Census 2017 population projections of little use for those who use population projections to forecast key economic variables such as labor force growth, household growth, etc.