Wednesday, June 13, 2018

"Mortgage Rates Higher Following Fed Forecasts"

by Bill McBride on 6/13/2018 05:53:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Higher Following Fed Forecasts

Mortgage rates moved higher today, following the Fed's much-anticipated policy announcement. Although the Fed changed quite a few words from the announcement's previous iteration (far more than normal), it wasn't the announcement itself that did the damage. Rather, it was the Fed members' economic projections, which include an assessment of where the Fed Funds Rate will likely be at the end of the next few years.

Specifically, a few of the Fed members who'd been holding out for slightly lower rates in 2018 moved their forecasts up enough to increase the odds of a 4th rate hike by December. … The net effect was a slight increase in rates that leaves us a little bit closer to the 7-year highs seen in mid-May. [30YR FIXED - 4.625%-4.75%]
emphasis added
Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for May will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in retail sales. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 4.0% on a YoY basis.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 224 thousand initial claims, up from 222 thousand the previous week.