Wednesday, June 13, 2018

FOMC Projections and Press Conference Link

by Bill McBride on 6/13/2018 02:15:00 PM

Statement here.

Powell press conference video here.

On the projections, the changes were minor.   The projections for GDP in 2018 are near the top of the March range, and the bottom of the range was revised up slightly.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Change in
Real GDP1
201820192020
Jun 20182.7 to 3.0 2.2 to 2.61.8 to 2.0
Mar 20182.6 to 3.0 2.2 to 2.61.8 to 2.1
Dec 20172.2 to 2.61.9 to 2.31.7 to 2.0
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 3.8% in May. So the unemployment rate projection for 2018 was revised down slightly.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Unemployment
Rate2
201820192020
Jun 20183.6 to 3.73.4 to 3.53.4 to 3.7
Mar 20183.6 to 3.83.4 to 3.73.5 to 3.8
Dec 20173.7 to 4.03.6 to 4.03.6 to 4.2
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of April, PCE inflation was up 2.0% from April 2017.  PCE inflation projections were revised up for 2018.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
PCE
Inflation1
201820192020
Jun 20182.0 to 2.12.0 to 2.22.1 to 2.2
Mar 20181.8 to 2.02.0 to 2.22.1 to 2.2
Dec 20171.7 to 1.92.02.0 to 2.1

PCE core inflation was up 1.8% in April year-over-year. Core PCE inflation was revised up slightly for 2018.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Core
Inflation1
201820192020
Jun 20181.9 to 2.02.0 to 2.22.1 to 2.2
Mar 20181.8 to 2.02.0 to 2.22.1 to 2.2
Dec 20171.7 to 1.92.02.0 to 2.1