Saturday, May 26, 2018

Schedule for Week of May 27, 2018

by Bill McBride on 5/26/2018 08:12:00 AM

The key reports this week are the May employment report on Friday, and the second estimate of Q1 GDP on Wednesday.

Other key indicators include Personal Income and Outlays for April, the May ISM manufacturing index, and May auto sales.

----- Monday, May 28th -----

All US markets will be closed in observance of Memorial Day.

----- Tuesday, May 29th -----

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for March.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the January 2018 report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 6.4% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for March.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May. This is the last of the regional Fed surveys for May.

----- Wednesday, May 30th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for May. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 186,000 payroll jobs added in May, down from 204,000 added in April.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2018 (Second estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.2% annualized in Q1, down from the advance estimate of 2.3% in Q1.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, May 31st -----

8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 224 thousand initial claims, down from 234 thousand the previous week.

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for April. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for May. The consensus is for a reading of 58.1, up from 57.6 in April.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for April. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in the index.

----- Friday, June 1st -----

Year-over-year change employment8:30 AM: Employment Report for May. The consensus is for an increase of 185,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in May, up from the 164,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in April.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.9%.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In April the year-over-year change was 2.280 million jobs.

A key will be the change in wages.

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for May. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 58.4, up from 57.3 in April.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The PMI was at 57.3% in April, the employment index was at 54.2%, and the new orders index was at 61.2%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for April. The consensus is for a 0.8% increase in construction spending.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for May. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 17.1 million SAAR in May, down from 17.2 million in April (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the April sales rate.