Friday, May 25, 2018

Q2 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 5/25/2018 11:18:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

On balance, today's data added a tenth to 2Q GDP tracking, to 3.5% qoq saar [May 25 estimate].
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
[W]e are lowering our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +3.4% (qoq ar). [May 24 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.0 percent on May 25, down from 4.1 percent on May 16. [May 25 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.0% for 2018:Q2. [May 25 estimate]
CR Note: These early estimates suggest real annualized GDP in the 3% to 4% in Q2.