Thursday, May 31, 2018

Goldman: May Payrolls Preview

by Bill McBride on 5/31/2018 03:02:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate that nonfarm payrolls increased 205k in May, 15k above consensus. While labor supply constraints often weigh on May job creation when the labor market is beyond full employment, we believe strong jobless claims data, rebounding business surveys, and a return to normal weather suggest a pickup in payroll growth in tomorrow’s report.

... we estimate the unemployment rate remained stable at 3.9% in May. ... We estimate a 0.2% month-over-month increase in average hourly earnings (and 2.6% year-on-year)
emphasis added