Friday, May 11, 2018

Early Q2 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 5/11/2018 11:19:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

Downward revisions to inventories this week leaves 1Q GDP tracking a tenth lower to 2.2% for 1Q GDP. We are tracking 3.2% for 2Q. [May 11 estimate].
emphasis added
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.0 percent on May 9, unchanged from May 3. [May 9 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.0% for 2018:Q2. [May 11 estimate]
CR Note: These early estimates suggest real annualized GDP in the 3% to 4% in Q2.