Friday, May 04, 2018

Early Q2 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 5/04/2018 02:55:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

We revise down our 2Q GDP forecast to 3.2% from 3.7% as consumer spending and capex trends appear less bullish and there is a weak handoff between 1Q and 2Q. [May 4 estimate].
emphasis added
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.0 percent on May 3, down from 4.1 percent on May 1. [May 3 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.0% for 2018:Q2. [May 4 estimate]
CR Note: These early estimates suggest GDP in the 3% to 4% in Q2.