Tuesday, May 29, 2018

Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Accelerates Notably"

by Bill McBride on 5/29/2018 10:37:00 AM

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Expansion Accelerates Notably

Texas factory activity rose markedly in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, increased 10 points to a 12-year high of 35.2, signaling further acceleration in output growth.

Most other indexes of manufacturing activity also indicated a sharp acceleration in May. The capacity utilization index rose notably from 18.7 to 32.2, and the shipments index jumped 20 points to 39.5. Demand growth picked up as the growth rate of orders index increased eight points to 26.5. All three measures reached their highest readings since 2006. Meanwhile, the new orders index held steady at 27.7.

Perceptions of broader business conditions were even more positive in May than in April. The general business activity index rose five points to 26.8, and the company outlook index rose four points to 28.0. These readings are far above their respective averages.

Labor market measures suggested stronger growth in employment and notably longer work hours in May. The employment index pushed up six points to 23.4, its highest reading in six years. Twenty-nine percent of firms noted net hiring, compared with 5 percent that noted net layoffs. The hours worked index shot up nine points to 23.2.
emphasis added
This was the last of the regional Fed surveys for May.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Fed Manufacturing Surveys and ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through May), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through May) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through April (right axis).

Based on these regional surveys, it is possible the ISM manufacturing index will be close to 60 in May (to be released on Friday, June 1st).