Wednesday, May 23, 2018

A few Comments on April New Home Sales

by Bill McBride on 5/23/2018 11:59:00 AM

New home sales for April were reported at 662,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). This was below the consensus forecast, and the three previous months were revised down.

Sales in April were up 11.6% year-over-year compared to April 2017, however, this was a fairly easy comparison.

Earlier: New Home Sales decrease to 662,000 Annual Rate in April.

New Home Sales 2016 2017Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows new home sales for 2017 and 2018 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

Sales are up 7.2% through April compared to the same period in 2017. Decent growth so far, and the next four months will also be an easy comparison to 2017.

This is on track to be close to my forecast for 2018 of 650 thousand new home sales for the year; an increase of about 6% over 2017.   There are downside risks to that forecast, such as higher mortgage rates, higher costs (labor and material), and possible policy errors.