Wednesday, April 18, 2018

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey

by Bill McBride on 4/18/2018 05:28:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Inch Higher as Bonds Suggest More Trouble Ahead

Mortgage rates moved higher today as bond markets continued a mildly weaker trend for the month of April. Bonds (which underlie rates) are under pressure for a variety of reasons. The most notable headwinds are longer-term and bigger-picture. Rates responded to these headwinds in a fairly big way in Jan/Feb and have basically been "taking a break" since then.

Rates have moved very little during this "break," with most borrowers being quoted the same NOTE rate on any given day in the past 2 months. Upfront costs have been the only way the modulate the EFFECTIVE rate of the average lender's 30yr fixed quote. [30YR FIXED - 4.5%]
emphasis added
Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 226 thousand initial claims, down from 233 thousand the previous week.

• At 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of 20.1, down from 22.3.