Sunday, April 08, 2018

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increases in March

by Bill McBride on 4/08/2018 09:54:00 AM

Note: This index is possibly a leading indicator for new non-residential Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment, except manufacturing.

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Climbs in March

The Dodge Momentum Index moved 6.1% higher in March, rising to 155.0 (2000=100) from the revised February reading of 146.0. The Momentum Index is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. March’s gain was the result of a 9.6% increase in the commercial component – more than erasing the 5.1% decline it had seen the previous month. The gain in the institutional sector meanwhile was milder, moving 1.6% higher, following an 8.1% gain in February. During the first nine months of 2017, the overall Momentum Index made little progress. However, planning activity shot up in the fourth quarter, with that impetus continuing into the first three months of 2018. In the latest quarter the Momentum Index gained 5.1%.
emphasis added
Dodge Momentum Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 155.0 in March, up from 146.0 in February.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This suggests further growth in 2018.