Thursday, April 05, 2018

Goldman: March Payrolls Preview

by Bill McBride on 4/05/2018 02:34:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate that nonfarm payrolls increased 200k in March, 15k above consensus. While we believe elevated snowfall will cause job growth to decelerate from the +276k average pace in the prior two months, labor market fundamentals remain solid and appear to have improved further.
...
we estimate the unemployment rate fell to 4.0% in March. ... We estimate a 0.3% month-over-month increase in average hourly earnings (and 2.7% year-on-year), reflecting somewhat favorable calendar effects. ...
emphasis added