Monday, March 19, 2018

Q1 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 3/19/2018 11:35:00 AM

Here are few Q1 GDP forecast.

From Merrill Lynch:

We continue to track 1.7% qoq saar for 1Q GDP [March 19 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2018 is 1.8 percent on March 16, down from 1.9 percent on March 14.
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.7% for 2018:Q1 and 2.8% for 2018:Q2. [March 16 estimate]
CR Note: It looks like another weak Q1, and there might still be some residual seasonality in the first quarter.