Wednesday, March 07, 2018

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increases Slightly in February

by Bill McBride on 3/07/2018 04:45:00 PM

Note: This index is possibly a leading indicator for new non-residential Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment, except manufacturing.

From Dodge Data Analytics: Tepid Rise for Dodge Momentum Index in February

The Dodge Momentum Index increased 0.5% in February to 146.9 (2000=100) from the revised January reading of 146.2. The Momentum Index is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. The move higher in February was the result of an 8.2% increase in the institutional component, while the commercial component contracted 4.8%. The commercial component has declined for two consecutive months, and while this should not lead to an outright decline in construction activity, it is an additional sign that commercial building construction growth could ease in 2018 in response to rising vacancy rates for offices and warehouses. On the other hand, institutional building construction continues to feed off the massive number of state and local bonds issued for schools and other institutional buildings over the past few election cycles.
emphasis added
Dodge Momentum Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 146.9 in February, up from 146.2 in January.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This suggests further growth in 2018.