Sunday, March 18, 2018

Goldman: FOMC Preview

by Bill McBride on 3/18/2018 11:59:00 AM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economists Jan Hatzius and Spencer Hill: FOMC Preview: A Fast Start for the Powell Fed

The FOMC looks very likely to raise rates at next week’s meeting, the first with Chairman Powell at the helm ... we expect a slightly hawkish tone to next week’s meeting.
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[We] expect the post-meeting statement to retain January’s upbeat tone ... but we expect the Committee’s optimism to come across more clearly in the SEP and the dots ... we do think the statement will acknowledge recent housing weakness.
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The SEP is likely to show higher GDP growth projections for 2018, 2019, and longer-run, as well as a lower unemployment path and a modest inflation overshoot in 2020.
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Public remarks by Fed officials suggest a broad shift in the committee’s outlook towards a potentially faster pace of tightening, and we expect the median dot to show four hikes in 2018, up from three at the December meeting.