Thursday, March 08, 2018

Goldman: February Payrolls Preview

by Bill McBride on 3/08/2018 02:15:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate that nonfarm payrolls increased 210k in February, 5k above consensus. We believe warmer weather and unseasonably light snow during the survey week boosted job growth in the month. Labor market fundamentals also appear solid and may have improved further, given new cycle records for initial claims and Conference Board job availability.
...
we estimate the unemployment rate fell to 4.0% in February ... We estimate a 0.3% month-over-month increase in average hourly earnings ... we estimate the year-over-year rate fell a tenth to +2.8%. ...
emphasis added