Saturday, February 24, 2018

Schedule for Week of Feb 25, 2018

by Bill McBride on 2/24/2018 08:11:00 AM

The key economic reports this week are the second estimate of Q4 GDP, January new home sales, February auto sales, and the December Case-Shiller house price index.

For manufacturing, the February ISM manufacturing index, and the February Richmond Fed and Dallas Fed manufacturing surveys will be released this week.

Also, the new Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, will deliver the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.

----- Monday, Feb 26th -----

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January. This is a composite index of other data.

New Home Sales10:00 AM: New Home Sales for January from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the December sales rate.

The consensus is for 600 thousand SAAR, down from 625 thousand in December.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February.

----- Tuesday, Feb 27th -----

8:30 ET AM: Durable Goods Orders for January from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in durable goods orders.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for December.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the October 2017 report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 6.3% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for December.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for December 2017. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

10:00 AM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Testimony, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Before the House Financial Services Committee, Washington, D.C.

10:00 AM ET: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February. This is the last of the regional surveys for February.

----- Wednesday, Feb 28th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2017 (Second estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.5% annualized in Q4, down from the advance estimate of 2.6%.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for February. The consensus is for a reading of 65.0, down from 65.7 in January.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for January. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in the index.

----- Thursday, Mar 1st -----

8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 230 thousand initial claims, up from 222 thousand the previous week.

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for January. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%.

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 58.6, down from 59.1 in January.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in December. The PMI was at 59.1% in January, the employment index was at 54.2%, and the new orders index was at 65.4%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for January. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in construction spending.

10:00 AM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Testimony, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Before the Senate Banking Committee, Washington, D.C

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for February. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 17.2 million SAAR in February, up from 17.1 million in January (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the January sales rate.

----- Friday, Mar 2nd -----

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for February). The consensus is for a reading of 99.5, down from 99.9 in January.