Wednesday, February 07, 2018

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "Falls" in January

by Bill McBride on 2/07/2018 02:37:00 PM

Note: This index is possibly a leading indicator for new non-residential Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment, except manufacturing.

From Dodge Data Analytics: The Dodge Momentum Index Falls as Year Begins

The Dodge Momentum Index dropped 5.1% in January to 143.7 (2000=100) from the revised December reading of 151.5. The Momentum Index is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. The commercial component of the Momentum Index was 7.8% lower in the month, while the institutional component was down 0.9%. The fourth quarter of 2017 was particularly strong for the Momentum Index, and January’s retreat returns it to a more sustainable level. On a year-over-year basis, the Momentum Index is 7.7% higher, with both the commercial and institutional components showing growth over January 2017. This suggests that nonresidential building construction should continue to post moderate gains in 2018.
emphasis added
Dodge Momentum Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 143.7 in January, down from 151.1 in December.

The index is up 7.7% year-over-year.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This suggests further growth in 2018.