Thursday, February 01, 2018

Goldman: January Payrolls Preview

by Bill McBride on 2/01/2018 03:11:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate that nonfarm payrolls increased 205k in January, above consensus of +180k. Labor market fundamentals continue to appear solid, and we believe weather in the survey week improved sequentially from that of December, despite the “bomb cyclone” in the first week of the month.

We forecast a stable unemployment rate of 4.1% in tomorrow’s report ... We estimate average hourly earnings increased 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year ...
emphasis added