Sunday, January 28, 2018

Vehicle Forecast: Sales Expected to Exceed 17 million SAAR Again in January

by Bill McBride on 1/28/2018 11:06:00 AM

The automakers will report January vehicle sales on Thursday, Feb 1st.

Note: There are 25 selling days in January 2018, there were 24 selling days in January 2017.

From WardsAuto: U.S. Forecast: January Sets Stage for Anticipated Year-Over-Year Decline

The Wards Intelligence January forecast calls for 1.16 million LVs to be delivered over 25 selling days, resulting in a 46,430-unit daily sales rate compared with 47,442 in prior-year (24 days). The DSR is down 2.1% from like-2017.
...
The resulting seasonally adjusted annual rate is 17.24 million units, below the 17.75 million in the previous month and 17.34 million year-ago.
emphasis added
Sales had been below 17 million SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) for six consecutive months last year, until September, when sales increased due to buying following Hurricane Harvey. If sales exceed 17 million SAAR in January, this will be the fifth consecutive month over 17 million SAAR. However, overall, it appears sales will be down again in 2018.

Here is a table of light vehicle sales since 2000. The record year for sales was 2016, followed by 2015, both breaking the previous record set in 2000. Last year, 2017, was the fourth best year ever, just ahead of 2001.

Light Vehicle Sales (000s)
YearSalesChange
200017,350
200117,122-1.3%
200216,816-1.8%
200316,639-1.1%
200416,8671.4%
200516,9480.5%
200616,504-2.6%
200716,089-2.5%
200813,195-18.0%
200910,402-21.2%
201011,55511.1%
201112,74210.3%
201214,43313.3%
201315,5307.6%
201416,4525.9%
201517,3965.7%
201617,4650.4%
201717,135-1.9%