Thursday, January 25, 2018

Q4 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 1/25/2018 05:13:00 PM

The advance estimate of Q4 GDP will be released tomorrow, Friday, January 26th. The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.9% annualized in Q4, down from 3.2% in Q3.

Here are a couple of estimates, from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The final GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 3.4 percent on January 25, unchanged from January 18.
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.9% for 2017:Q4 and 3.1% for 2018:Q1.
CR Note: It looks likely that GDP will be around or over 3% again in Q4.