Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Q4 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 1/16/2018 10:39:00 AM

The advance estimate of Q4 GDP will be released on Friday, January 26th.

Here are a few estimates, from Merrill Lynch:

The strength of the retail sales report [last Friday] lifted our 4Q GDP tracking estimate by 0.6pp to 2.8% qoq saar.
emphasis added
From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 3.3 percent on January 12, up from 2.8 percent on January 10.
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.9% for 2017:Q4 and 3.2% for 2018:Q1.
CR Note: It looks likely that GDP will be close or over 3% again in Q4.