Monday, January 22, 2018

Phoenix Real Estate in December: Sales up slightly, Inventory down 13% YoY

by Bill McBride on 1/22/2018 11:54:00 AM

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in December were up 0.7% year-over-year (including homes, condos and manufactured homes).

2) Active inventory is now down 12.6% year-over-year. 

More inventory (a theme in most of 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster.  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

With flat inventory in 2016, prices were up 4.8%.

This is the fourteenth consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory, and prices are rising a little faster in 2017 (4.9% through October or 5.9% annual rate).

December Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  SalesYoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
Dec-085,524---1,66530.1%53,7921---
Dec-097,66138.7%3,00839.3%39,709-26.2%1
Dec-108,4019.7%3,93946.9%42,4636.9%
Dec-117,843-6.6%3,63546.3%24,712-41.8%
Dec-127,071-9.8%3,21145.4%21,095-14.6%
Dec-135,930-16.1%2,05334.6%25,51120.9%
Dec-146,4759.2%1,89329.2%25,052-1.8%
Dec-156,7564.3%1,61723.9%23,053-8.0%
Dec-167,1545.9%1,65523.1%22,388-2.9%
Dec-177,2040.7%1,62622.6%19,570-12.6%
1 December 2008 probably includes pending listings