Tuesday, January 02, 2018

Framing Lumber Prices Up Sharply Year-over-year, Looks like Record Prices in 2018

by Bill McBride on 1/02/2018 11:59:00 AM

Here is another update on framing lumber prices. Early in 2013 lumber prices came close to the housing bubble highs - and prices finished 2017 near the bubble highs.

This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through December 2017 (via NAHB), and 2) CME framing futures.

Prices in 2017 are up solidly year-over-year and will probably exceed the housing bubble highs in the Spring of 2018.  Note: CME prices hit an all time high briefly in November.

Lumcber PricesClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Right now Random Lengths prices are up 20% from a year ago, and CME futures are up about 43% year-over-year.

There is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices. Prices frequently peak around May, and bottom around October or November - although there is quite a bit of seasonal variability.

It looks like we will see record prices in the Spring of 2018.