Thursday, January 04, 2018

Final Update: 2018 Housing Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 1/04/2018 05:11:00 PM

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year.

The table below shows several forecasts for 2018:

From Fannie Mae: Housing Forecast: December 2017

From Freddie Mac: November 2017 Economic & Housing Market Forecas

From NAHB: NAHB’s housing and economic forecast

From NAR: Economic & Housing Outlook

Note: For comparison, new home sales in 2017 will probably be around 615 thousand, and total housing starts around 1.210 million.  House prices were up about 6.2% year-over-year in October (Case-Shiller).

Housing Forecasts for 2018
New Home Sales (000s)Single Family Starts (000s)Total Starts (000s)House Prices1
CoreLogic4.2%6
Fannie Mae7039101,2555.1%2
Freddie Mac

1,3005.7%2
HomeAdvisor56539811,3204.0%
Merrill Lynch680
1,2755.4%
NAHB6538931,248
NAR7005.0%3
Wells Fargo6759301,2805.3%
Zillow
3.0%4
1Case-Shiller unless indicated otherwise
2FHFA Purchase-Only Index
3NAR Median Prices
4Zillow Home Prices
5Brad Hunter, chief economist, formerly of MetroStudy
6CoreLogic Index