Tuesday, January 02, 2018

CoreLogic: House Prices up 7.0% Year-over-year in November

by Bill McBride on 1/02/2018 09:45:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for November. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for October. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports Fourth Consecutive Month with More Than 6 Percent Year-Over-Year Home Price Growth in November

CoreLogic® ... today released its CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for November 2017, which shows home prices are up both year over year and month over month. Home prices nationally increased year over year by 7 percent from November 2016 to November 2017, and on a month-over-month basis home prices increased by 1 percent in November 2017 compared with October 2017,* according to the CoreLogic HPI.

Looking ahead, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 4.2 percent on a year-over-year basis from November 2017 to November 2018, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to decrease by 0.4 percent from November 2017 to December 2017. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

“Rising home prices are good news for home sellers, but add to the challenges that home buyers face,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Growing numbers of first-time buyers find limited for-sale inventory for lower-priced homes, leading to both higher rates of price growth for ‘starter’ homes and further erosion of affordability.”
emphasis added
CR Note: The YoY increase has been in the 5% to 7% range for the last couple of years.  This is the top end of that range.

The year-over-year comparison has been positive for almost six consecutive years since turning positive year-over-year in February 2012.