Monday, December 18, 2017

Update from Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November

by Bill McBride on 12/18/2017 03:57:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler (same estimate, more discussion):

Based on publicly-available state and local realtor/MLS reports from across the country released through today, I predict that US existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million in November, up 5.3% from October’s preliminary estimate and up 3.0% from last November’s seasonally adjusted pace.

On the inventory front, realtor/MLS data suggest that inventories in November were down YOY by about the same amount was the case in October. How that will translate into the NAR’s estimate is tricky, however, as the NAR’s inventory estimate for October showed a larger YOY drop that realtor/MLS data would have suggested.

Finally, realtor/MLS data suggest the the NAR’s estimate for the median existing home sales price in November will be up by about 6.4% from last November.

CR Note: Existing home sales for November are scheduled to be released Wednesday. The consensus is for sales of 5.52 million SAAR. Take the over on Wednesday!