Monday, December 18, 2017

Tuesday: Housing Starts

by Bill McBride on 12/18/2017 08:19:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Rise Only Slightly Despite Weaker Market Cues

Mortgage rates bounced modestly higher today, bringing the average lender back in line with last Wednesday's levels. Bond markets (which underlie mortgage rate movement) suggested a slightly bigger bounce. We may not have seen such a bounce simply due to timing. Specifically, bonds weakened throughout the day, but few lenders adjusted rate sheets in the afternoon. As such, we could begin the day tomorrow at a bit of a disadvantage, unless bond markets improve overnight.

For several months, 4.0% has been the most prevalently-quoted conventional 30yr fixed rate on top tier scenarios. We discuss "rates" as moving up and down during that time but in reality, the only things moving are the upfront closing costs associated with that rate. It's not uncommon for rates to be exceptionally flat heading into the end of the year, but in this case, they began flattening out in late September.
emphasis added
Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for November. The consensus is for 1.240 million SAAR, down from the October rate of 1.290 million.