Saturday, December 16, 2017

Schedule for Week of December 17th

by Bill McBride on 12/16/2017 08:13:00 AM

The key economic reports this week are November housing starts, new home sales and existing home sales.  Other key reports include the third estimate of Q3 GDP, and Personal Income & Outlays for November.

For manufacturing, the December Philly Fed and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released this week.

----- Monday, Dec 18th -----

10:00 AM: The December NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 70, unchanged from 70 in November. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

----- Tuesday, Dec 19th -----

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts8:30 AM: Housing Starts for November. The consensus is for 1.240 million SAAR, down from the October rate of 1.290 million.

This graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

The graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then - after moving sideways for a couple of years - housing is now recovering.

----- Wednesday, Dec 20th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

Existing Home Sales10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for November from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.52 million SAAR, up from 5.48 million in October.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 5.77 million SAAR for November.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for November (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

----- Thursday, Dec 21st -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 234 thousand initial claims, up from 225 thousand the previous week.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2017 (Third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.3% annualized in Q3, unchanged from 3.3% in the second report.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 21.8, down from 22.7.

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data.

9:00 AM ET: FHFA House Price Index for October 2017. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

----- Friday, Dec 22nd -----

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 2.0% increase in durable goods orders.

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for November. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

New Home Sales10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales for November from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the September sales rate.

The consensus is for 650 thousand SAAR, down from 685 thousand in October.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for December). The consensus is for a reading of 97.0, up from the preliminary reading 96.8.

10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for November 2017

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for December.