Tuesday, December 05, 2017

November Employment Revisions

by Bill McBride on 12/05/2017 03:41:00 PM

Every month, prior to writing my employment preview, I like to look at revisions for that month in prior years.

Here is a table of revisions for November since 2005.  Note that most of the revisions have been up.   This doesn't mean that the November 2017 revision will be up, but it does seem likely.  Although, in recent years, the revisions have been more evenly split between up and down.
 
The fairly large upward revision in 2005 was related to the hurricanes that year.

November Employment Report (000s)
YearInitialRevisedRevision
2005215341126
200613220977
20079411420
2008-533-766-233
2009-11-29
20103911980
201112014121
2012146132-14
201320325855
2014321312-9
201521127261
2016178164-14

Note: In 2008, the BLS significantly under reported job losses. That wasn't surprising since the initial models the BLS used missed turning points (something I wrote about in 2007). The BLS has since improved this model.