Wednesday, December 13, 2017

FOMC Projections and Press Conference Link

by Bill McBride on 12/13/2017 02:10:00 PM

Statement here.

Yellen press conference video here.

On the projections, projections for GDP in 2017 are near the top of the September range.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Change in
Real GDP1
2017201820192020
Dec 20172.4 to 2.52.2 to 2.61.9 to 2.31.7 to 2.0
Sept 2017 2.2 to 2.52.0 to 2.3 1.7 to 2.11.6 to 2.0
June 2017 2.1 to 2.21.8 to 2.21.8 to 2.0---
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 4.1% in October and November, so the unemployment rate projection for Q4 2017 was revised down.  The unemployment rate for 2018 and 2019 were also revised down too.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Unemployment
Rate2
2017201820192020
Dec 2017 4.13.7 to 4.03.6 to 4.03.6 to 4.2
Sept 2017 4.2 to 4.34.0 to 4.23.9 to 4.44.0 to 4.5
June 2017 4.2 to 4.34.0 to 4.34.1 to 4.4---
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of October, PCE inflation was up 1.6% from October 2016.  Based on recent readings, PCE inflation was revised up slightly for Q4 2017, and down for 2018.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
PCE
Inflation1
2017201820192020
Dec 2017 1.6 to 1.71.7 to 1.92.02.0 to 2.1
Sept 2017 1.5 to 1.61.8 to 2.02.02.0 to 2.1
June 2017 1.6 to 1.71.8 to 2.02.0 to 2.1---

PCE core inflation was up 1.4% in October year-over-year.  Core PCE inflation was unchanged for Q4 2017, and revised down for 2018.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Core
Inflation1
2017201820192020
Dec 2017 1.51.7 to 1.92.02.0 to 2.1
Sept 2017 1.5 to 1.61.8 to 2.02.02.0 to 2.1
June 2017 1.6 to 1.71.8 to 2.02.0 to 2.1---