Thursday, December 21, 2017

Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey showed "Solid Growth" in December

by Bill McBride on 12/21/2017 11:15:00 AM

Earlier from the Philly Fed: December 2017 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey

Results from the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing conditions continued to improve. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments were all positive this month and increased from their readings last month. The firms also reported continued expansion of employment. Most indicators reflecting expectations for the next six months suggest continued optimism.
...
The diffusion index for current general activity increased from a reading of 22.7 in November to 26.2 this month ... The firms continued to report increases in employment. The current employment index fell 5 points but remained in positive territory, where it has been for 13 consecutive months. More than 29 percent of the responding firms reported increases in employment, while 11 percent of the firms reported decreases this month. The average workweek index declined 3 points after being in positive territory for 14 consecutive months.
emphasis added
Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Fed Manufacturing Surveys and ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through December), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through November) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through November (right axis).

This suggests the ISM manufacturing index night increase slightly in December, and show solid expansion again.