Saturday, November 25, 2017

Schedule for Week of Nov 26, 2017

by Bill McBride on 11/25/2017 08:11:00 AM

The key economic reports this week are the second estimate of Q3 GDP, and New Home sales for October.

Other key indicators include Case-Shiller house prices for September, the November ISM manufacturing index, and November auto sales.

----- Monday, Nov 27th -----

New Home Sales10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales for October from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the September sales rate.

The consensus is for 620 thousand SAAR, down from 667 thousand in September.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November.

----- Tuesday, Nov 28th -----

9:00 AM ET: FHFA House Price Index for September 2017. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for September.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the August 2017 report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 6.2% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for September.

9:45 AM: Testimony, Fed Governor Jerome Powell, Nomination Hearing, Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. This is the last of the regional surveys for November.

----- Wednesday, Nov 29th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2017 (Second estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.3% annualized in Q3, up from 3.0% in the advance report.

10:00 AM: Testimony, Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Economic Outlook, Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for October. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in the index.

----- Thursday, Nov 30th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 240 thousand initial claims, up from 239 thousand the previous week.

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for October. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for November. The consensus is for a reading of 64.0, down from 66.2 in October.

----- Friday, Dec 1st -----

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for November. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 58.4, down from 58.7 in September.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in October. The PMI was at 58.4% in October, the employment index was at 59.8%, and the new orders index was at 63.4%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for October. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for November. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 17.6 million SAAR in November, down from 18.0 million in October (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the October sales rate.