Sunday, November 26, 2017

Q4 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 11/26/2017 08:38:00 AM

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 3.4 percent on November 22, unchanged from November 17.
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2017:Q4 stands at 3.7%.
From Merrill Lynch:
We continue to track 2.3% for 4Q.
From Goldman Sachs:
We revised up our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by a total of three tenths to 2.6% (qoq ar) over the last week
CR Note: These forecasts are for Q4. The second estimate of Q3 GDP will be released this week, and the consensus is that real GDP increased 3.3% annualized in Q3, up from 3.0% in the advance report.