Friday, November 17, 2017

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

by Bill McBride on 11/17/2017 03:55:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available state and local realtor/MLS reports from across the country released through today, I predict that US existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.60 million in October, up 3.9% from September’s preliminary estimate and up 1.3% from last October’s seasonally-adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should register a higher YOY gain, reflecting this October’s higher business day count compared to last October’s.

On the inventory front, local realtor/MLS data suggest that the NAR’s estimate of the number of existing homes for sale at the end of October will be about 1.88 million, down 1.1% from September’s preliminary estimate and down 6.5% from last October’s estimate.

Finally, realtor/MLS data suggest that the NAR’s estimate of the median existing SF home sales price last month was up 5.8% from last October.

CR Note: Existing home sales for October are scheduled to be released next Tuesday. The consensus is for sales of 5.40 million SAAR. Take the over on Tuesday!