Saturday, October 28, 2017

Schedule for Week of Oct 29, 2017

by Bill McBride on 10/28/2017 08:09:00 AM

The key report this week is the October employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include Case-Shiller house prices for August, the October ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, October auto sales and the September Trade deficit.

The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and no change to policy is expected at this meeting.

Also, the announcement of the new (or hopefully reappointed) Fed Chair is expected this week.

----- Monday, Oct 30th -----

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for September. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.9% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October. This is the last of the regional surveys for October.

----- Tuesday, Oct 31st -----

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for August.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the July 2017 report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 6.0% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for August.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for October. The consensus is for a reading of 62.0, down from 65.2 in September.

10:00 AM: the Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership from the Census Bureau.

----- Wednesday, Nov 1st -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 210,000 payroll jobs added in October, up from 135,000 added in September.

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 59.5, down from 60.8 in September.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in September. The PMI was at 60.8% in September, the employment index was at 60.3%, and the new orders index was at 64.6%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for September. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in construction spending.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for October. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 17.5 million SAAR in October, down from 18.6 million in September (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the September sales rate.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC is expected to announce no change to policy at this meeting.

----- Thursday, Nov 2nd -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 235 thousand initial claims, up from 233 thousand the previous week.

----- Friday, Nov 3rd -----

8:30 AM: Employment Report for October. The consensus is for an increase of 323,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in October, up from the 33,000 non-farm payroll jobs lost in September.

Year-over-year change employmentThe consensus is for the unemployment rate to increase to 4.3%.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In September the year-over-year change was 1.78 million jobs.  This was the smallest year-over-year gain since 2012.

A key will be the change in wages.

U.S. Trade Deficit 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for September from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through August. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $43.4 billion in September from $42.4 billion in August.

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for index to decrease to 58.7 from 59.8 in September.