Friday, October 20, 2017

Q3 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 10/20/2017 02:52:00 PM

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 2.7 percent on October 18, unchanged from October 13. The forecast of third-quarter real residential investment growth inched down from -4.1 percent to -4.3 percent after this morning's new residential construction release from the U.S. Census Bureau.
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.5% for 2017:Q3 and 2.6% for 2017:Q4
From Merrill Lynch:
We revise up our 3Q GDP forecast to 3.0% marking to market with our tracking estimate.
CR Note: The BEA is scheduled to release the advance estimate for Q3 GDP next week.  Based on the August report, PCE looks sluggish in Q3 (mid-month method at 1.7%).