Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Housing Starts decreased to 1.127 Million Annual Rate in September

by Bill McBride on 10/18/2017 08:40:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,127,000. This is 4.7 percent below the revised August estimate of 1,183,000, but is 6.1 percent above the September 2016 rate of 1,062,000. Single-family housing starts in September were at a rate of 829,000; this is 4.6 percent below the revised August figure of 869,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 286,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,215,000. This is 4.5 percent below the revised August rate of 1,272,000 and is 4.3 percent below the September 2016 rate of 1,270,000. Single-family authorizations in September were at a rate of 819,000; this is 2.4 percent above the revised August figure of 800,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 360,000 in September.
emphasis added
Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.

Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) decreased in September compared to August.  However Multi-family starts are up slightly year-over-year.

Multi-family is volatile month-to-month, but has been mostly moving down recently.

Single-family starts (blue) decreased in September, and are up 5.9% year-over-year.

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

 The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then - after moving sideways for a couple of years - housing is now recovering (but still historically low),

Total housing starts in September were below expectations.  Starts for July and August were revised slightly.  

Starts in the south were down year-over-year (hurricane Harvey).  I'll have more later ...