Thursday, September 07, 2017

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 298,000

by Bill McBride on 9/07/2017 08:34:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending September 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 298,000, an increase of 62,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 236,000. This is the highest level for initial claims since April 18, 2015 when it was 298,000. The 4-week moving average was 250,250, an increase of 13,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 236,750.

Hurricane Harvey impacted this week's initial claims.
emphasis added
The previous week was unrevised.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 250,250.

This was above the consensus forecast, but an increase was expected due to Hurricane Harvey.

Note: Claims will probably increase further over the next few weeks due to Hurricane Harvey and possibly due to Hurricane Irma.