Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Flow of Funds

by Bill McBride on 9/20/2017 08:32:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Highest in More Than a Month After Fed

Mortgage rates rose today following the announcement and--more importantly--the Fed's updated economic projections. ... Investors weren't sure how the past few months of economic data and events would affect the rate hike outlook.  As it turned out, the Fed is more optimistic than investors anticipated.  That means they're more willing stick with the previous rate hike outlook for 2017 and 2018, and those rate hike expectations have a direct bearing on today's interest rates.

Conventional 30yr fixed rates didn't spike in any brutal sort of way, but given that the past 2 weeks have already seen a somewhat abrupt increase in rates, today still managed to be unpleasant.  4.0% is now the most prevalently-quoted conventional 30yr fixed rate on top tier scenarios.  It had shared the stage with 3.875% roughly equally until today.  That leaves today's rates at the highest levels in nearly 2 months.
Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 303 thousand initial claims, up from 284 thousand the previous week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of 18.0, down from 18.9.

• At 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for June 2017. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

• At 12:00 PM, Q2 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.