Sunday, September 03, 2017

Sunday Night Futures

by Bill McBride on 9/03/2017 07:20:00 PM

On Monday, all US markets will be closed in observance of the Labor Day holiday.

Weekend:
Schedule for Week of Sept 3, 2017

An update on Q3 GDP forecasts, from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 3.2 percent on September 1, down from 3.3 percent on August 31.
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.2% for 2017:Q3.
From Merrill Lynch:
[Recent] data chopped 0.4pp from our 3Q GDP tracking estimate, bringing it down to 2.7% qoq saar.
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 are down 10, and DOW futures are down 60 (fair value).

Oil prices were down slightly over the last week with WTI futures at $47.38 per barrel and Brent at $52.45 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $45, and Brent was at $47 - so oil prices are up year-over-year.

Note: When refineries shut down, oil prices tend to decline - since demand for oil falls - and gasoline prices increase - since the supply of gasoline falls.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.63 per gallon - up sharply due the Hurricane Harvey - a year ago prices were at $2.21 per gallon - so gasoline prices are up 41 cents per gallon year-over-year.