Saturday, September 30, 2017

Schedule for Week of Oct 1, 2017

by Bill McBride on 9/30/2017 08:11:00 AM

The key report this week is the September employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the September ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, September auto sales and the August Trade deficit.

----- Monday, Oct 2nd -----

Early: Reis Q3 2017 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for September. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 58.0, down from 58.8 in August.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in August. The PMI was at 58.8% in August, the employment index was at 59.9%, and the new orders index was at 60.3%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for August. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in construction spending.

----- Tuesday, Oct 3rd -----

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for September. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 16.7 million SAAR in September, up from 16.1 million in August (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the August sales rate.

10:00 AM ET: The CoreLogic House Price index for August.

----- Wednesday, Oct 4th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for September. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 150,000 payroll jobs added in September, down from 237,000 added in August.

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for September. The consensus is for index to increase to 55.4 from 55.3 in August.

3:15 PM: Speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Brief welcoming remarks, At the Community Banking in the 21st Century Research and Policy Conference, hosted by the Federal Reserve System and the Conference of State Bank Supervisors, St. Louis, Missouri

----- Thursday, Oct 5th -----

8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 265 thousand initial claims, down from 272 thousand the previous week.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through July. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $42.5 billion in August from $43.7 billion in July.

----- Friday, Oct 6th -----

8:30 AM: Employment Report for September. The consensus is for an increase of 95,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in September, down from the 156,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in August.

Year-over-year change employmentThe consensus is for the unemployment rate to increase to 4.4%.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In August the year-over-year change was 2.10 million jobs.

A key will be the change in wages.

3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for August from the Federal Reserve.