Friday, September 29, 2017

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Close to 2%

by Bill McBride on 9/29/2017 11:43:00 AM

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 2.3 percent on September 29, up from 2.1 percent on September 27. Since the previous GDPNow update on Wednesday, the forecasts of the contributions of net exports and inventory investment to third-quarter GDP growth increased from -0.16 percentage points and 0.90 percentage points, respectively, to -0.01 percentage points and 1.13 percentage points, respectively. The forecasts of real consumer spending growth and real nonresidential equipment investment growth declined from 2.0 percent and 5.7 percent, respectively, to 1.8 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively.
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.5% for 2017:Q3 and 2.0% for 2017:Q4.
CR Note: Based on the August report, PCE looks sluggish in Q3 (mid-month method at 1.7%).