Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Housing Starts decreased to 1.180 Million Annual Rate in August

by Bill McBride on 9/19/2017 08:38:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,180,000. This is 0.8 percent below the revised July estimate of 1,190,000, but is 1.4 percent above the August 2016 rate of 1,164,000. Single-family housing starts in August were at a rate of 851,000; this is 1.6 percent above the revised July figure of 838,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 323,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,300,000. This is 5.7 percent above the revised July rate of 1,230,000 and is 8.3 percent above the August 2016 rate of 1,200,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 800,000; this is 1.5 percent below the revised July figure of 812,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 464,000 in August.
emphasis added
Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.

Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) decreased in August compared to July.  Multi-family starts are down 23% year-over-year.

Multi-family is volatile month-to-month, but has been mostly moving sideways over the last few years.

Single-family starts (blue) increased in August, and are up 17.1% year-over-year.

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

 The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then - after moving sideways for a couple of years - housing is now recovering (but still historically low),

Total housing starts in August were above expectations, And starts for June and July were revised up.    Also permits were strong in August.  I'll have more later ...