Wednesday, September 20, 2017

FOMC Projections and Press Conference Link

by Bill McBride on 9/20/2017 02:10:00 PM

Statement here. "In October, the Committee will initiate the balance sheet normalization program".

Yellen press conference video here.

On the projections, projections for GDP in 2017 were increased.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Change in
Real GDP1
2017201820192020
Sept 2017 2.2 to 2.52.0 to 2.3 1.7 to 2.11.6 to 2.0
June 2017 2.1 to 2.21.8 to 2.21.8 to 2.0---
Mar 20172.0 to 2.21.8 to 2.31.8 to 2.0---
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 4.4% in August, so unemployment rate projections were unchanged.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Unemployment
Rate2
2017201820192020
Sept 2017 4.2 to 4.34.0 to 4.23.9 to 4.44.0 to 4.5
June 2017 4.2 to 4.34.0 to 4.34.1 to 4.4---
Mar 2017 4.5 to 4.64.3 to 4.64.3 to 4.7---
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of July, PCE inflation was up 1.4% from July 2016. Inflation was revised down for 2017.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
PCE
Inflation1
2017201820192020
Sept 2017 1.5 to 1.61.8 to 2.02.0 2.0 to 2.1
June 2017 1.6 to 1.71.8 to 2.02.0 to 2.1---
Mar 2017 1.8 to 2.01.9 to 2.02.0 to 2.1---

PCE core inflation was up 1.4% in July year-over-year.  Core PCE inflation was revised down for 2017.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Core
Inflation1
2017201820192020
Sept 2017 1.5 to 1.61.8 to 2.02.02.0 to 2.1
June 2017 1.6 to 1.71.8 to 2.02.0 to 2.1---
Mar 2017 1.8 to 1.91.9 to 2.02.0 to 2.1---