Thursday, September 21, 2017

Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey "Showed Improvement" in September

by Bill McBride on 9/21/2017 03:00:00 PM

Earlier from the Philly Fed: September 2017 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey

Manufacturing firms reported an improvement in regional manufacturing conditions in September. The survey’s current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments increased this month and suggest a broadening of growth. Price pressures also picked up, according to the reporting firms. The survey’s future indicators suggest that manufacturers have generally grown more optimistic over the past three months.
...
The indexes for general activity [increased to 23.8 from 18.9 in August], new orders, and shipments increased this month, and employment remained positive.
emphasis added
Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Fed Manufacturing Surveys and ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through September), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through August) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through August (right axis).

This suggests the ISM manufacturing index will show solid expansion in September.