Monday, September 04, 2017

August Employment Revisions

by Bill McBride on 9/04/2017 11:13:00 AM

Last week, in my employment preview, I noted "My sense (mostly based on history) is that job gains will be below consensus in August." Sure enough.

Here is a table of revisions for August since 2005.  Note that most of the revisions have been up.   This doesn't mean that the August 2017 revision will be up, but it does seem likely.   I'm not sure why the BLS has underestimated job growth in August (possibly because of the timing of seasonal teacher hiring and the end of the summer jobs).


August Employment Report (000s)
YearInitialRevisedRevision
2005169196+27
200612818355
2007-4-20-16
2008-84-267-183
2009-216-2133
2010-54-3618
20110110110
20129617781
201316926192
201414223088
2015173157-16
2016151176 25 
2017156--- ---

Note: In 2008, the BLS significantly under reported job losses. That wasn't surprising since the initial models the BLS used missed turning points (something I wrote about in 2007). The BLS has since improved this model.