Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Zillow Forecast: "July Case-Shiller Forecast: Slowdown Coming in Home Prices"

by Bill McBride on 8/30/2017 12:13:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for June were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Svenja Gudell at Zillow: July Case-Shiller Forecast: Slowdown Coming in Home Prices

Following months of record highs in the Case-Shiller U.S. National Index for home prices, July is expected to bring a slowdown — to 5.6 percent from June’s 5.8 percent year-over-year, non-seasonally adjusted gain. The monthly gain for July is forecast at 0.2 percent, which is half the 0.4 percent growth that index posted for June.

The 10- and 20-month indices are expected to drop 0.1 percent from June to July, with the 10-city index gaining 4.8 percent in July over the previous year, down from June’s 4.9 percent annual growth, and the 20-city index climbing 5.4 percent annually, down from 5.7 percent in June.

Zillow’s full forecast for July Case-Shiller data is shown below. These forecasts are based on today’s June Case-Shiller data release and the July 2017 Zillow Home Value Index. The July S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices will not be released officially until Tuesday, September 26.
The year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index will probably be smaller in July than in June.

Zillow forecast for Case-Shiller